The recent spates of violence carried out by Uighur terrorists are manifestations of tensions between the Han majority and the Uighur in Xinjiang. The tensions are a result of long standing religious, social, economic and culture frictions.
Xinjiang has seen tremendous development in recent years. However not everyone has benefitted equally. The Han majority, whether native or recently migrated to Xinjiang, are generally better educated and better connected than Uighurs, thus getting the best jobs.
Fearing social unrest, the nervous government suppressed some aspects of the Uighur religion and tradition, further fuelling the resentment of the Uighurs.
The government policies to deal with the issue have been quite crude - more development and heightened security. The result - the deadly 2009 Urumqi riot, which killed 200, and more recently, deadly terrorist attacks that have claimed more than 70 lives so far.
Xinjiang has seen tremendous development in recent years. However not everyone has benefitted equally. The Han majority, whether native or recently migrated to Xinjiang, are generally better educated and better connected than Uighurs, thus getting the best jobs.
Fearing social unrest, the nervous government suppressed some aspects of the Uighur religion and tradition, further fuelling the resentment of the Uighurs.
The government policies to deal with the issue have been quite crude - more development and heightened security. The result - the deadly 2009 Urumqi riot, which killed 200, and more recently, deadly terrorist attacks that have claimed more than 70 lives so far.
I believe that the recent events have showed the central government that their policy is failing in Xinjiang, and that the government has realised it. They have known the root causes of those violence, but they did not have the political will to administrate the "cure". The recent events will push them to "swallow the bitter pill".
You can say a lot of things about the chinese government, but you can't say they are not pragmatic and adaptable. After all they are a communist regime running a capitalist country.
I believe that more competent administrators will be sent the region, the entrenched powers that resisted the changes will be broken, and some subtle policy changes will be quietly enacted. Uighurs will have more religious freedom, their tradition better respected, they may have better empolyment opportunity (tax breaks for employers who employ Uighur, perhaps). All these will be done quietly and over a number of years so as not to antagonise the Han Chinese.
I don't think the tide of Han migration will be stemmed, as the complete "colonisation" of Xinjiang is the government's "(not-so) secret" long term aim. Thus a lot of the tensions will remain, the problem will continue, though much muted.
In the mean time the government has to show itself that it's strong, and not easily defeated, so as to make the populace feel safe and also to intimidate the would-be terrorists. Thus the show of force by the people's armed police and the even more heightened security around the country.
The "medicine" for the "disease" will eventually work, if the government has enough patience and will. When it does work, it will be so gradual, the "patient" won't even notice it.
